Updated on Friday 29 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 101616 (+1199) 1721753 (+22577) 399991 (+8483) 1220146 (+12895)
United Kingdom 37919 (+377) 270508 (+1889) 1167 (+1) 231422 (+1511)
Italy 33142 (+70) 231732 (+593) 150604 (+3503) 47986 (-2980)
France 28665 (+66) 186364 (+3326) 67309 (+607) 90390 (+2653)
Spain 27119 (+2) 237906 (+1647) 150376 (+0) 60411 (+1645)
Brazil 26754 (+1156) 438238 (+26417) 177604 (+10957) 233880 (+14304)
Belgium 9388 (+24) 57849 (+257) 15572 (+107) 32889 (+126)
Mexico 9044 (+447) 81400 (+3377) 56041 (+2207) 16315 (+723)
Germany 8470 (+42) 182196 (+672) 163360 (+540) 10366 (+90)
Iran 7627 (+63) 143849 (+2258) 112988 (+1812) 23234 (+383)
Canada 6982 (+106) 89976 (+987) 46961 (+713) 36033 (+168)
Netherlands 5922 (+32) 46152 (+182) 178 (+1) 40052 (+149)
India 4711 (+177) 165386 (+7300) 70920 (+3171) 89755 (+3952)
China 4638 (+0) 84106 (+0) 79371 (+4) 97 (-4)
Turkey 4461 (+30) 160979 (+1182) 124369 (+1576) 32149 (-424)
Sweden 4266 (+46) 35727 (+639) 4971 (+0) 26490 (+593)
Russia 4142 (+174) 379051 (+8371) 150993 (+8785) 223916 (-588)
Peru 4099 (+116) 141779 (+5874) 59442 (+3273) 78238 (+2485)
Ecuador 3313 (+38) 38471 (+368) 18425 (+0) 16733 (+330)
Switzerland 1919 (+2) 30796 (+20) 28300 (+0) 577 (+18)
Ireland 1639 (+8) 24841 (+38) 22089 (+0) 1113 (+30)
Indonesia 1496 (+23) 24538 (+687) 6240 (+183) 16802 (+481)
Portugal 1369 (+13) 31596 (+304) 18637 (+288) 11590 (+3)
Pakistan 1260 (+35) 61227 (+2076) 20231 (+1089) 39736 (+952)
Romania 1235 (+8) 18791 (+197) 12629 (+467) 4927 (-278)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 355670 (+4680) 5724840 (+117156) 2336589 (+65868)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 354088 ( +2533) 5734412 ( +77726) 2394697 ( +61957)
Sat 30 May 2020 356464 ( +2375) 5809446 ( +75035) 2455991 ( +61294)
Sun 31 May 2020 358687 ( +2224) 5881714 ( +72267) 2516414 ( +60423)
Mon 01 June 2020 360766 ( +2078) 5951159 ( +69445) 2575767 ( +59353)
Tue 02 June 2020 362705 ( +1939) 6017746 ( +66587) 2633864 ( +58098)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84106 (+0) 79371 (+4)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84066 ( +0) 78274 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84066 ( +0) 78274 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84066 ( +0) 78274 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84067 ( +0) 78274 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84067 ( +0) 78274 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 27119 (+2) 237906 (+1647) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 27873 ( +18) 233113 ( +98) 156173 ( +732)
Sat 30 May 2020 27889 ( +16) 233201 ( +88) 156867 ( +694)
Sun 31 May 2020 27903 ( +15) 233280 ( +79) 157525 ( +658)
Mon 01 June 2020 27916 ( +13) 233352 ( +71) 158149 ( +624)
Tue 02 June 2020 27928 ( +12) 233415 ( +64) 158741 ( +591)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 33142 (+70) 231732 (+593) 150604 (+3503)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 32844 ( +44) 229484 ( +187) 149393 ( +1631)
Sat 30 May 2020 32885 ( +41) 229654 ( +170) 150949 ( +1556)
Sun 31 May 2020 32922 ( +37) 229809 ( +155) 152432 ( +1482)
Mon 01 June 2020 32956 ( +34) 229950 ( +141) 153842 ( +1411)
Tue 02 June 2020 32987 ( +31) 230079 ( +128) 155183 ( +1341)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 37919 (+377) 270508 (+1889) 1167 (+1)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 37502 ( +123) 262398 ( +940) 1486 ( +41)
Sat 30 May 2020 37614 ( +112) 263264 ( +866) 1528 ( +42)
Sun 31 May 2020 37715 ( +102) 264061 ( +797) 1571 ( +43)
Mon 01 June 2020 37807 ( +92) 264795 ( +734) 1616 ( +45)
Tue 02 June 2020 37891 ( +83) 265469 ( +675) 1662 ( +46)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 101616 (+1199) 1721753 (+22577) 399991 (+8483)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 100786 ( +550) 1704495 ( +11765) 410687 ( +10987)
Sat 30 May 2020 101290 ( +504) 1715477 ( +10982) 421728 ( +11041)
Sun 31 May 2020 101751 ( +461) 1725711 ( +10234) 432816 ( +11089)
Mon 01 June 2020 102171 ( +421) 1735233 ( +9522) 443945 ( +11129)
Tue 02 June 2020 102555 ( +384) 1744081 ( +8848) 455107 ( +11162)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 28665 (+66) 186364 (+3326) 67309 (+607)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 27986 ( +8) 183825 ( +87) 66362 ( +237)
Sat 30 May 2020 27993 ( +7) 183894 ( +69) 66580 ( +218)
Sun 31 May 2020 28000 ( +6) 183950 ( +56) 66780 ( +200)
Mon 01 June 2020 28005 ( +6) 183994 ( +44) 66964 ( +184)
Tue 02 June 2020 28010 ( +5) 184030 ( +36) 67133 ( +168)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 8470 (+42) 182196 (+672) 163360 (+540)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 8168 ( +7) 180100 ( +144) 159938 ( +177)
Sat 30 May 2020 8174 ( +6) 180232 ( +131) 160097 ( +159)
Sun 31 May 2020 8180 ( +6) 180351 ( +119) 160239 ( +143)
Mon 01 June 2020 8185 ( +5) 180459 ( +108) 160368 ( +128)
Tue 02 June 2020 8189 ( +5) 180557 ( +98) 160483 ( +115)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 5922 (+32) 46152 (+182) 178 (+1)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 5853 ( +6) 45026 ( +30) 234 ( +8)
Sat 30 May 2020 5858 ( +5) 45052 ( +27) 242 ( +8)
Sun 31 May 2020 5863 ( +5) 45076 ( +24) 250 ( +8)
Mon 01 June 2020 5867 ( +4) 45097 ( +21) 258 ( +8)
Tue 02 June 2020 5871 ( +4) 45116 ( +19) 267 ( +9)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 9388 (+24) 57849 (+257) 15572 (+107)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 9357 ( +12) 55757 ( +34) 15410 ( +38)
Sat 30 May 2020 9368 ( +11) 55788 ( +31) 15444 ( +35)
Sun 31 May 2020 9377 ( +10) 55816 ( +28) 15476 ( +31)
Mon 01 June 2020 9386 ( +9) 55841 ( +25) 15504 ( +28)
Tue 02 June 2020 9394 ( +8) 55863 ( +22) 15530 ( +26)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 4266 (+46) 35727 (+639) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 4222 ( +31) 35647 ( +373) 5041 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4250 ( +29) 36003 ( +356) 5041 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4277 ( +26) 36342 ( +339) 5041 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4301 ( +24) 36665 ( +323) 5041 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4323 ( +22) 36971 ( +306) 5041 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 1038 (+10) 22825 (+352) 10560 (+230)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 1040 ( +7) 22950 ( +303) 10159 ( +149)
Sat 30 May 2020 1047 ( +7) 23241 ( +291) 10298 ( +139)
Sun 31 May 2020 1053 ( +7) 23519 ( +279) 10427 ( +129)
Mon 01 June 2020 1060 ( +6) 23786 ( +266) 10547 ( +120)
Tue 02 June 2020 1066 ( +6) 24040 ( +254) 10657 ( +111)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 1919 (+2) 30796 (+20) 28300 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 1903 ( +1) 30542 ( +3) 28052 ( +19)
Sat 30 May 2020 1904 ( +1) 30544 ( +2) 28069 ( +16)
Sun 31 May 2020 1904 ( +1) 30546 ( +2) 28083 ( +14)
Mon 01 June 2020 1905 ( +0) 30548 ( +2) 28096 ( +13)
Tue 02 June 2020 1905 ( +0) 30550 ( +2) 28107 ( +11)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 26754 (+1156) 438238 (+26417) 177604 (+10957)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 27159 ( +854) 452420 ( +19108) 196973 ( +11548)
Sat 30 May 2020 27996 ( +836) 471701 ( +19281) 209241 ( +12268)
Sun 31 May 2020 28812 ( +816) 491101 ( +19400) 222272 ( +13032)
Mon 01 June 2020 29605 ( +793) 510565 ( +19464) 236116 ( +13843)
Tue 02 June 2020 30374 ( +769) 530037 ( +19472) 250821 ( +14706)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 28 May 2020 7627 (+63) 143849 (+2258) 112988 (+1812)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 7502 ( +25) 128876 ( +418) 114557 ( +1686)
Sat 30 May 2020 7525 ( +23) 129270 ( +394) 116194 ( +1636)
Sun 31 May 2020 7547 ( +22) 129642 ( +371) 117770 ( +1577)
Mon 01 June 2020 7567 ( +21) 129992 ( +350) 119279 ( +1509)
Tue 02 June 2020 7587 ( +19) 130321 ( +330) 120713 ( +1434)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.